This book explains the presidential election through a strategic focus. In the primaries both parties faced challenges from insurgent outsiders riding waves. Rachel Bitecofer ist sich ihrer Sache sicher. Deshalb prognostizierte die Politologin, die für die Washingtoner Denkfabrik Niskanen Center. Profile von Personen mit dem Namen Rachel Bitecofer anzeigen. Tritt Facebook bei, um dich mit Rachel Bitecofer und anderen Personen, die du kennen.
John-F.-Kennedy-Institut für NordamerikastudienProfile von Personen mit dem Namen Rachel Bitecofer anzeigen. Tritt Facebook bei, um dich mit Rachel Bitecofer und anderen Personen, die du kennen. Rachel Bitecofer ist sich ihrer Sache sicher. Deshalb prognostizierte die Politologin, die für die Washingtoner Denkfabrik Niskanen Center. Rachel Bitecofer – Bücher – gebraucht, antiquarisch & neu kaufen ✓ Preisvergleich ✓ Käuferschutz ✓ Wir ♥ Bücher!
Rachel Bitecofer The Battle of the Bases Has Began VideoOur Experts Answer Questions You Have About Voting And The Election - The ReidOut - MSNBC
Even then, though, Bitecofer was bullish on something nobody else was: she believed Donald Trump was going to have a very hard time getting reelected.
Back then, most pollsters thought the Trump economy and record-low unemployment would carry him to victory in swing states.
But Bitecofer and her model are different. In , when Trump was elected, Bitecofer was still a professor and had not yet become the election modeling expert many consider her to be today.
But her rise to notoriety came after her model predicted the size of the blue wave almost perfectly months before election day. That blue wave, Bitecofer told everyone, was going to come because of the negative partisanship data her model included.
This, she argued as early as July of , was going to sink him. And take the Republican-controlled Senate down, too.
Instead, her bullishness on Democrats winning the presidency, retaking the Senate and picking up the House has grown — but only modestly.
As it turns out, even in the age of polarization, voters become more persuadable when your greed and gross incompetence is literally killing them.
Bitecofer is a liberal, a passionate and outspoken liberal who loathes what the president stands for and what she views as an open attempt to subvert democracy as we know it.
With just a couple of weeks to go until election day, I wanted to follow up with Bitecofer and see where her model stands now. Last week, she released her election update , which shows Joe Biden with an So on Monday, I called her up and asked her why.
We rehashed some things from , and I pressed her on whether her own personal politics might impact her modeling. We also touch on the potential for Florida results to end the election on election night, rather than the election ending after days of counting mail-in votes across swing states.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity. It also contains some explicit language and annotations for additional context that are marked with asterisks.
Tangle: To sort of press rewind for a sec, the last time we spoke was early February. So much has happened since then. Back then, you told me that you expected Donald Trump to lose in November, and your main reason was that the Democratic base was activated.
Bitecofer: No. I mean, keep in mind we've gone through a once in a century global pandemic. And you know he [Trump] has mismanaged it terribly.
This is an objective fact, right? It becomes subjective once it gets into the partisan environment, but this is a global phenomenon.
Other countries are going through it -- it's not American centric, and you can thus measure America's pandemic against its fellow democracies and countries and see how we are faring, and we are faring objectively terribly.
And yet, there's been no real democratic price for him. There's been a mild price, and we'll talk about that specifically.
But not the total of what we would see if we were not a country whose body politic is deeply sick with hyperpartisanship and polarization.
What we should be seeing is a massive and total rejection of him. He should be polling like George W. Bush right after the financial crisis hit. And between those two groups, you're going to be at 40 percent-ish.
So Trump is always going to be around 40 percent-ish because those groups refuse to acknowledge reality about his performance. With the Bush administration, that was kind of true going through eight years of his presidency.
And then in his second term, the Iraq War reality started to settle in. But once the economic collapse came in and really got into the last couple of months, suddenly his approval started to drop below With Trump, that has never happened.
He's set to get shellacked, but he's still not Jimmy Carter in shellacked. So that said, when I talked to you in February, we had one effect. And that the midwest would be obviously out of reach for the Republicans and that's exactly what we see right now.
We see the midwest out of reach for the Republicans. I wrote this in the forecast and you can go back and look at it — it was a profound misunderstanding of how Trump won the midwest in the first place.
It wasn't winning over this big revolution of white working-class voters. Of course, in my theory, I also talk about a certain segment of independents.
Because most independents are leaners, so leaners are basically closet partisans, they are not persuadable. I can show you in the data that independent-leaners are almost no different in their vote propensity for Trump than people who are admitted Republicans.
My theory has always argued that the pure independents were going to break against Trump this cycle. In , Trump had the advantage of being the outsider coming against an incumbent power that has been in power for eight years.
He was the anti-status quo candidate. Pure independents are generally not highly informed, highly engaged voters.
And they generally don't like the party in power. And so my theory at the time was that they would break in favor of Biden.
And then between these two parties, you have to ask is there a breaking in favor of one party or the other. Usually, we're talking This year we have this second effect, I'm calling it the pandemic effect.
Instead of it being , these pure independents are more like in favor of Biden, and so when we look at why Biden's advantages have extended in the last couple of months, it's that extended growth amongst that group of voters and some of them are seniors.
So my sole update [the one released this week] talks about two effects, right? But also a deeper map. We're really seeing now potential for Texas to flip.
And they wouldn't be doing that if they didn't really feel that there is some potentiality for that state to be competitive. The state has really helped out by the way, by the fact that it's had a ton of down-ballot activity in the state legislature.
The state legislature is very likely going to flip control, they're nine seats away, and almost half the competitive House seats are in Texas.
This view has been criticized by traditional political analysts like David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report , with others such as Kyle Kondik and Sam Wang taking a more balanced approach.
Bitecofer has disagreed with Nate Silver 's take that ideologically extreme candidates pay a political price, believing instead that a candidate like Bernie Sanders would not cause significant downside for the Democrats, though she does not find much upside either, arguing that he did not bring many new voters to the polls in The fact that progressive favorites like Stacey Abrams and Beto O'Rourke often came much closer to winning their races in red states in than Blue Dog moderates who tried to ingratiate themselves with Trump has been held as validation for her theory.
In July , Bitecofer predicted that President Trump would lose the election , with the Democratic candidate winning electoral votes. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
Rachel Bitecofer. American political scientist. Retrieved June 12, Trump talks to them as they are: Walmart shoppers.
Vance of working-class America- the real one where people have 3 kids from 3 different women and get angry when 1 of them is reticent to let them visit their kid when they get out jail.
And now its gone. And do you know who took it? The Democrats. Its going to take a complete and total overall of the entire electioneering approach of the party.
Sign in. Log into your account.About The Cycle. The Cycle is a digital platform for news and politics founded by Dr. Rachel Bitecofer. Forecaster, election analyst, pollster, and all-around data girl, Dr. Bitecofer is one of the most accurate, and exciting, experts in today's political arena. Rachel Bitecofer’s Version of HuffPost Is (Kind of) Here The renegade political scientist has launched a publication named the Cycle. She promises it will not be boring. Written by Andrew Beaujon | Published on October 14, In today’s edition, I’m talking to Rachel Bitecofer again. She’s the pollster I interviewed last winter who — at the time — had already released her election predictions for the presidential, Senate and House races. Bitecofer (right) on CNN in February discussing her election models. Last weekend, I read an interview inSalonwith Rachel Bitecofer, a political scientist at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Va. She is also an election analyst whose forecast of big. This morning, former Christopher Newport University Professor, Niskanen Center Senior Fellow and elections analyst/modeler Rachel Bitecofer is out with her forecasts for this November’s elections –. Donald J. Their masks are off. 9darter 2, Part 2: Assessing the Elections. Eine Politologin in Washington allerdings ist anderer Meinung. I, more than any person in the game, have to be correct. Logan Paul Vs Ksi Time Learn to edit Community portal Recent changes Upload file. Create your profile Set photo.